قد يؤدي ارتفاع سرعة دوران العملات المستقرة إلى الإضرار بالطلب — آراء السوق

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0811 ET - Stablecoin velocity, the frequency with which these cryptocurrencies turn over, has jumped in recent months after being broadly stable, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick says in a note. This could reduce demand, he says. "Our prior assumption that stablecoin velocity would remain stable meant that as use of stablecoins increased (resulting in more transactions), more stablecoins would also be needed." If velocity increases, this could reduce the need for the total number of stablecoins required, he says. Nevertheless, Standard Chartered continues to expect stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028. The increase in velocity appears to reflect new use cases for stablecoins rather than all uses, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0805 ET - Bitcoin is struggling to recover as U.S. real inflation-adjusted yields rise and the computational power used in bitcoin mining, or hashrate, falls, Marex crypto analysts say. "When real rates push higher, bitcoin tends to lose marginal buyers and rallies become shorter lived," they say in a note. Bitcoin's hashrate fell during the first quarter, the first decline in six years, as miners shifted capital to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Meanwhile, Strategy has paused bitcoin purchases, breaking a pattern the market had become comfortable with, the analysts say. Bitcoin trades steady at $66,625 after earlier modest gains driven by a WSJ report that President Trump is willing to end U.S. attacks against Iran, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0745 ET - The European Central Bank is likely to hike interest rates in the coming months, Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macroeconomics says in a note. Headline inflation in the eurozone jumped to 2.5% in March. This is set to rise further in the near term, settling in a 2.5% to 3.0% range this year and next, Vistesen says. Pantheon expects the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points in June and July. Still, rate cuts will remain on the table as the economy struggles. "We expect the bank to attempt to thread the needle by taking the policy rate towards the upper end of neutral, at 2.5%, in the hope that this strikes a balance between upside risks to inflation and the risk of tipping the economy into recession." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0731 ET - The cost of default protection for euro credit falls modestly as market sentiment improves mildly. President Trump told aides he is ready to end the Iran war, the Wall Street Journal reported. However, investors are exercising caution. "Much remains uncertain and until there is clarity on a route towards bringing the fighting and disruption to an end, markets are likely to remain nervy," AJ Bell's Russ Mould says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps falls 4 basis points to 358 basis points, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Senior Financials index of euro investment-grade financial CDS falls 1 basis point to 79 basis points. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0726 ET - The rise in eurozone inflation doesn't yet provide sufficient reason for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, Berenberg's Felix Schmidt says in a note. So far only energy prices are driving up inflation, which at 2.5% was below consensus expectations. If the conflict eases by the end of April, the ECB would still have the option of looking through the temporary supply shock, he says. The indirect effects of businesses passing on some of their energy costs in the form of higher prices for non-energy items are not yet visible. However, the longer the war drags on and the higher inflationary pressures rise, the more likely it becomes that the ECB will tighten monetary policy this year, Schmidt says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0719 ET - Eurozone inflation coming in below forecasts suggests there will be fewer interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year than the market expects, Commerzbank's Vincent Stamer says in a note. Inflation rose to 2.5% in March, from 1.9% in February, lower than consensus expectations. Inflation most closely tracks with the ECB's mildest scenario of the impact of the Iran war, in which it climbs only slightly above 3% in the second quarter, Stamer says. Two other scenarios assumed significantly higher energy prices. "This currently argues against multiple interest rate hikes by the central bank, as currently expected by the market." The analyst expects the ECB to raise its rate once in April or at least signal a rate hike in June. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0620 ET - Sterling could hand back some of its recent gains in coming months as expectations for U.K. interest-rate rises appear excessive, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Market pricing implies two to three rate increases by year-end, LSEG data show, as energy prices rise due to the Iran war. In contrast, Rabobank sees the risk of one rate rise, potentially in April. "The U.K. economy was positioned on a weaker footing relative to many of its peers at the start of the conflict." The U.K. is therefore more vulnerable to recession risks, particularly if the BOE raised rates aggressively, Foley says. Rabobank expects the euro to rise to 0.87-0.88 pounds in three to six months from 0.8676 currently.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0547 ET - The euro holds steady against the dollar, showing little reaction even after data showed eurozone inflation accelerated by less than expected in March. Inflation rose to an annual rate of 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February, according to a flash estimate. Economists in a WSJ survey had expected inflation to reach 2.7%. Core inflation fell to 2.3% from 2.4%, as expected. Inflation is expected to rise as energy prices jump due to the Iran war. In response, the market is pricing in 73 basis points of interest-rate rises from the European Central Bank by year-end, LSEG data show. The euro trades flat at $1.1469, little changed from levels before the data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0520 ET - Cryptocurrencies are lacking the strong institutional inflows needed for a sustained move higher, Saxo Bank analysts say in a note. Positioning in the options market remains defensive, they say. Investors continue to buy protection against the risk of falls in crypto-linked equities and exchange traded funds through put options in names such as Coinbase and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. However, there is selective long-dated buying of call options, which expect an asset price to rise, in names like Strategy. ETF flows remain mixed, with bitcoin ETFs seeing modest inflows and ether ETFs seeing outflows. Bitcoin is steady at $66,627, LSEG data show. Ether climbs 0.7% to $2,036. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0512 ET - France faces a risk of stagflation linked to the war in Iran, after inflation rebounded in March at the same time first-quarter activity data is deteriorating, ING's Charlotte de Montpellier says in a note. EU-harmonized inflation rose to 1.9% from 1.1% in February, as energy inflation jumped to 7.3%. Other data show risks weighing on French activity are significant, such as household consumption contracting by 1.4% in February, de Montpellier says. These indicators point to a weaker-than-expected first quarter and a fragile starting point even before the impact of the conflict materializes, she says. "Our March forecast of average growth of 0.7% for the full year--compared with 1% expected at the beginning of the year--now already looks optimistic." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0458 ET - As the Middle East war persists, markets appear to be transitioning from concerns about an inflation shock caused by surging energy prices to concerns about a more pronounced growth shock, say analysts at Saxo. This shift is "increasingly pressuring equities" while lending support to both bonds and gold, "as investors reassess the balance between inflation risks and slowing economic activity," Saxo says. Surging energy prices--and the consequent growing market expectations that central banks would raise interest rates-- previously weighed on bonds and gold, sending yields higher. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0453 ET - The Bank of Japan tankan survey due Wednesday is expected to show that Japanese companies will continue to plan capital expenditure that is roughly in line with historical averages for the new fiscal year ending March 2027, says Okasan Securities economist Ko Nakayama. Solid investment appetite will likely be supported by robust corporate earnings, demand for labor-saving and automation technologies and spending for research and development, which tends to remain resilient regardless of business sentiment, Nakayama says. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260331004488:0/