0419 GMT - The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy settings pre-emptively to guard against looming imported inflation, and UOB economists see scope for another move as early as July. The MAS flagged risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, raised 2026-2027 inflation forecasts and cut growth views. UOB's economics team also downgrades its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Singapore to 2.5% from 3.6%. Under its baseline assumptions, it expects MAS to tighten further in October via a 50bp Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate band slope steepening, with the risk that the move could be brought forward to July. More aggressive tightening could happen if there is a confident, data-driven assessment that core inflation could meaningfully exceed 2.5% this year, UOB's Jester Koh writes. MAS sees core inflation at 1.5%-2.5%. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0353 GMT - China's trade surplus will likely shrink this year due to higher energy prices, Pinpoint chief economist Zhiwei Zhang says in a note. "The market already expected export growth would slow in March," he says. Both the later timing of Lunar New Year and the Middle East conflict weighed on March's export data, Zhang says. China's trade surplus will likely shrink this year, as it can't pass the higher energy prices completely to foreign consumers, he notes. However, China's market share in global trade, excluding energy, will likely rise, given the scale and efficiency of China's manufacturing sector, he adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0343 GMT - China's credit demand may find support from policy-backed financing tools, according to Barclays economists in a research note. China's credit growth weakened to a 16-month low in March, they point out. Policymakers have noted that they will expand policy-backed funding instruments, such as issuing financial bonds through banks, to support investment in green transformation and infrastructure, they say. This may partly offset weak private credit demand, they note. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0329 GMT - Bitcoin bounces back in Asia trade as hopes for further talks between Iran and the U.S. buoy appetite for risk assets. The cryptocurrency has been swinging up and down on headlines around the conflict, and fresh optimism today lifted it to $74,901--the highest in nearly a month. What happens over the next few weeks will define the 2026 market trajectory, says Nic Puckrin, macro analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau. Bitcoin is becoming a key barometer of geopolitical shocks, he says, noting a Binance report showing that weekend crypto trading predicts Wall Street moves on Mondays with 89% accuracy. Looking ahead, everything hinges on what happens with the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade. If stagflation fears become self-fulfilling, Puckrin expects a prolonged bear market for risk assets. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0250 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session as traders track Middle East developments. The "U.S.-Iran dialogue remains intact despite inconclusive talks in Islamabad, even as a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports begins," analysts of CIMB's Treasury and Markets Research say in a research report. "Sources indicate that U.S. officials are internally discussing details for a potential second in-person meeting before the cease-fire expires," the analysts add. The current cease-fire is due to end on April 21. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 1.2734 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0224 GMT - Singapore's move to tighten its currency policy, despite softening domestic growth, signals that global central banks are being forced to lean hawkish as the oil shock ripples through supply chains, eToro analyst Zavier Wong says in a note. If the Hormuz disruption persists, further tightening remains very much on the table, Wong adds, noting that a stronger Singapore dollar helps reduce import costs but offers limited support for growth.(venkat.pr@wsj.com)

0216 GMT - As the mechanism where wages and inflation rise in tandem becomes more active in Japan, there is a growing sense that the Bank of Japan is already behind the curve in its policy response, says Okasan Securities economist Ko Nakayama. It is important for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration to allow the central bank to walk the path toward interest rate hikes, rather than masking inflationary pressures through large-scale subsidies and consumption tax reductions, he adds. Amid high uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East, the overnight index swap market is pricing in a roughly 40% chance of an April rate increase.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0210 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is expected to maintain its policy rate at 1.00% through 2026, Barclays economists say in a note. BOT Gov. Vitai Ratanakorn said recently that the central bank will keep the current policy rate for "as long as possible" and "refrain from raising interest rates," Barclays notes. The central bank is likely more concerned about the Middle East conflict's impact on Thailand's growth, than it is about higher inflation. "The BOT has previously stated its preference to look through the supply shock and consequent rise in inflation," Barclays says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0203 GMT - China's credit demand still faces pressure, according to BofA Securities economists in a research note. March credit data suggest households and firms remain cautious on new lending. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also adds uncertainty, they note. "While we expect manufacturing and infrastructure investment demand to strengthen on the back of resilient exports and continued support from policy financing tools, credit demand still remains weak," they say. In addition, improved secondary home sales in tier-1 cities, especially Shanghai, haven't boosted broader property activity or mortgage demand yet, they say. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0141 GMT - China's yuan is "relatively insulated" from Middle East events, thanks to the country's "relatively light energy import burden," RBC Capital Markets' Abbas Keshvani says in a research report. China's net oil and gas imports amounts to 1.7% of GDP, the Asia macro strategist estimates. The yuan also benefits from safe-haven bids for Chinese government bonds, Keshvani says, adding that China's low inflation and accommodative monetary policy have kept bond yields anchored at around 1.8%. RBC Capital Markets forecasts the dollar at 6.8200 yuan in 2Q, 6.8000 yuan in 3Q, and 6.7800 yuan in 4Q. The dollar is 0.1% lower at 6.8207 against onshore yuan, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0030 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar as traders eye a U.S.-Iran developments. President Trump said the "right people" in Iran still want a U.S.-Iran deal after talks in Pakistan over the weekend ended without an agreement. However, neither the U.S. nor Iran has publicly committed to another round of negotiations, CBA's Carol Kong says in a research report. The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will probably "test the durability of the fragile cease-fire and threatens to push the USD back up if the cease-fire collapses," the economist and currency strategist adds. The dollar falls 0.2% to 159.18 yen, but is little changed at 1,478.60 won and is flat at 1.2732 Singapore dollar, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260414000041:0/