Today’s recovery was largely fuelled by a subtle return of risk sentiment as investors priced in reports of tensions easing in the Middle East.

This was reflected in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which moved up four points to 27 towards the middle of the range, which marks "Fear."

The total crypto market cap edged up slightly, gaining 1.6%, but remained well below the $2.5 trillion psychological threshold.

The altcoin market showed subtle signs of movement after spending the weekend recovering from recent losses, but gains were limited across a handful of small-cap tokens.

Why is Bitcoin price up today?

Bitcoin price rallied 4.5% from monthly lows at $65,112 to reach an intra-day high of $68,000 before the rally lost steam and investors returned to a risk-averse mode ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s moderated discussion at Harvard University later in the day.

Today’s rally was supported by dip buying as investors reacted to reports of Pakistan preparing to host peace talks between the US and Iran in an effort to de-escalate the month-long regional conflict.

The two-day talks in the Pakistani capital that began on Sunday were facilitated by Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar over several hours of meetings with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey.

Subsequently, the market found relief after President Donald Trump recently instructed the Pentagon to postpone military strikes against Iranian power and energy infrastructure for five days, citing "productive conversations" regarding a resolution.

However, this diplomatic window wasn’t enough to sustain a break above $68,000, where a wave of long liquidations and selling pressure from short-term traders capped the upside.

According to Coinglass data, over $240 million worth of long positions had been liquidated.

Aside from liquidations, there is a significant supply overhang near $68,000 from investors who bought the dip in early March and are now looking to break even.

At the same time, while dip-buying occurred on the spot market, the institutional side showed weakness.

According to SoSoValue data, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $296 million in net outflows for the week ending March 27.

This marked a reversal of a four-week inflow streak, suggesting that institutional big money is de-risking rather than chasing the rally, which stripped the $68,000 push of its necessary momentum.

Failing to breach this level also brought attention to the broader macroeconomic environment, where surging oil prices, with Brent crude hovering near $114, have dampened hopes of aggressive rate cuts this year.

Meanwhile, capital has rotated back to Gold, which rose by nearly 1% as a preferred safe-haven hedge against potential stagflation risks.

Will Bitcoin price go up?

While the five-day postponement of strikes provides relief, the market is fixated on the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s continued grip on this strategic waterway is keeping the "War Risk Premium" embedded in oil prices.

Traders are hesitant to push Bitcoin past major resistance until there is a clear sign that the Strait will reopen, as a prolonged closure essentially guarantees stagflation.

According to some analysts, the “path of least resistance” remains downward in the near term, particularly as Bitcoin struggles to reclaim key resistance levels.

On X, Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst noted that losing the $68,000–$69,000 support “confirms short-term bearish momentum,” warning that failure to quickly reclaim that range could open the door for a move toward the $65,000 demand zone.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,563, up over 1.6% in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, analyst Willy Woo pointed to on-chain models that place the potential bear market bottom significantly lower.

He referred to Bitcoin’s realized price and the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), both widely used to identify long-term valuation floors across market cycles. See below.

Realized price tracks the average acquisition cost of all circulating BTC, while CVDD reflects the aggregate value of coins moved relative to the network’s age, often acting as a structural support level during bear markets.

Based on these models, Woo suggested a potential bottom range between $46,000 and $54,000, indicating that further downside remains possible before a cycle low is established, particularly if macro conditions continue to pressure risk assets.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:cadde1382094b:0-bitcoin-price-recovery-stalls-near-68k-as-analysts-eye-further-downside/